Impact of COVID-19 on Dubai Expo 2020
The Dubai Expo 2020 was due to kick off on October 20, 2020. However, in light of the COVID-19 outbreak, the UAE government has formally requested the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), the intergovernmental organization that supervises world expos, to consider a one-year postponement. The event is now proposed to start from October 1, 2021, and will run for six months there on.
Given the evolving situation in the world, as a result of the pandemic, the requisition to postpone the mega event is a welcome decision. Nevertheless, the postponement will not be without consequences. Some experts, for instance, are now casting doubts about whether the rescheduled event will live up to its initial billing. According to those that hold this perspective, the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism, mega events and the economy at large, could be irreversible, or at least long lasting. It could be years before activities across business and industry return to a semblance of normalcy. Perhaps, some would even argue that COVID-19 could potentially redefine what can be deemed ‘normal’.
Where does the BIE stand?
After weeks of deliberation, the Dubai Expo 2020 Steering Committee has reached a consensus, for which it also sought the input of the representatives of Expo 2020 participant nations, to explore the possibility of postponing the event to 2021, pending BIE’s decision. In response to the petition, the BIE has called a meeting of its 12-member executive committee on April 21. The proposal will be ratified if two-thirds of the committee members vote in favour. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation under the UAE government, who requested the postponement, has also expressed the nation’s steadfast commitment towards the Expo, something that the BIE duly acknowledged – publicly – through a tweet.
Standing in solidarity
The imminent rescheduling of Expo 2020 follows the postponement of yet another mega event, the Tokyo Summer Olympics, which were originally scheduled to take place between July 24 and August 9. In view of the pandemic, the games have been rescheduled to take place from July 23 to August 8 in 2021. In fact, the dates chosen for the rescheduled Olympics, it is being shared, influenced the proposed revised dates for Expo 2020 as well.
The participant nations, for their part, continue to stand in solidarity with the UAE. The likes of India, Egypt, Brazil and Colombia have been vocal about their continued support for the expo, commending the UAE’s proactive efforts to accommodate the pandemic-related requests of all participant nations(1). Construction of pavilions on the Expo site is continuing in compliance with safety regulations and barrier measures. The representatives of Nissan (premier automotive partner), PepsiCo (beverage partner) and Siemens (premier partner for infrastructure digitalization) too have voiced their support, in what can be perceived as a show of strength and cooperation, as the world continues to battle a common enemy in COVID-19.
Impact and implications of postponement
The history of world expos is often classified in three phases — industrialization, cultural exchange and nation branding. The earliest ones were centered on innovation and trade, with each expo tied to the unveiling of a ground-breaking invention. The following phase was marked by social advancement and cultural themes, especially post WWII. It was not until 1988 that expos became platforms for nations to build their image and brand. Considering the interval between two expos has been at least five years since 1995, each expo mirrors a different evolutionary stage, offering a unique opportunity for chosen nations to tell their stories to the world.
The UAE deservedly won the right to host the mega event for 2020, thanks to its enthusiasm for innovation, visionary leadership and economic prowess. Leaving no stone unturned, the government earmarked $8–10 billion dollars for the event, which in turn was expected to boost the national economy by over $33 billion, according to an estimate by EY(2). Today, taking stock of the pandemic situation and considering its domino effect, it is safe to say that such projections will need to be reassessed. For instance, the same study projected a creation of 37,500 jobs during the pre-expo period, 94,400 jobs during the expo and 53,800 jobs in the legacy period, per year, on average. The current disruption, however, is now likely to cause unemployment, and even if the event goes to plan in 2021, the jobs created may not match the previous projections.
Also, around 25 million visitors were expected to visit the expo, with at least 70% of them from foreign countries. This was expected to be a windfall for the local tourism and hospitality industry, particularly short-term rentals, which had already begun to witness an upturn. Hoteliers had begun to expand their capabilities, in order to reap profits in a few months. They will now have to wait for what could likely be a diminished demand – although this would still be better than a cancelled event.
Impact of Covid-19 on the larger economy
To make matters worse, the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an economic fallout, exacerbated by a collapse in oil prices across the Gulf. The UAE government was quick to release a massive stimulus package worth Dh126 billion to offset the loss. However, in the event of a global recession, the UAE may be pushed to reevaluate its spending, which would be cold comfort for a country that had vowed to “astonish the world” in 2020. The UAE will not be alone in this period of retrenchment, as the participant nations and partner companies too could be financially impaired, which in turn will impact their expenditure on pavilions, sponsorships, etc.
On the positive side, the UAE is extremely resilient as an economy, and the government’s timely measures against the COVID-19 outbreak are already beginning to bear fruit, with a low number of cases and casualties compared to many other regions in the world. For now, this is cause for cautious optimism. If normalcy can be restored relatively soon and the risk of a global recession averted, a rescheduled expo could still be an event to leave an indelible mark on the world, as well as one that adds significant impetus to the UAE economy. For now, however, one will have to wait and watch as events continue to unfold and the repercussions of this crisis become more apparent.
